Who Will Succeed Pope Francis?
Who Will Succeed Pope Francis?
The See of Peter is vacant. Following the death of Pope Francis on April 21, 2025, the Catholic Church has entered the period known as sede vacante – the time between pontificates. Francis, born Jorge Mario Bergoglio in Argentina, was a figure of profound transformation and, frequently, intense debate. History’s first pope from the Global South, the first Jesuit pontiff, he revitalized the hopes of many Catholics after years of scandal and perceived stagnation. His papacy was marked by powerful pastoral gestures, a relentless focus on social justice, care for migrants and the environment, the championing of synodality – a process of walking together – and a deliberate outreach to the geographical and existential peripheries of the Church and the world. He inspired deep affection among many faithful, a connection not felt so broadly, perhaps, since Pope John XXIII.
Now, the cardinals of the Church gather in Rome, first for the papal funeral rites presided over by the Dean of the College, Cardinal Giovanni Battista Re, and then for the solemn, secret duty of the conclave: electing the 267th successor to St. Peter. This election is a moment of immense consequence, setting the direction for the world's 1.37 billion Catholics and shaping the Church's engagement with global challenges for years to come.
The upcoming conclave is unique. Pope Francis appointed the overwhelming majority – approximately 80% – of the cardinal electors, those under the age of 80 who are eligible to vote. Currently, this electorate numbers around 135-140 individuals. Francis deliberately sought to make the College of Cardinals more reflective of the universal Church, appointing many prelates from Asia, Africa, and Latin America, often from nations or dioceses that had never before had a cardinal. While this ensures his priorities are represented, it does not automatically guarantee a successor cast in his exact image. This unprecedented geographical diversity, combined with the potential lack of deep personal familiarity among cardinals from vastly different contexts, could foster complex voting dynamics and make the outcome less predictable than in past conclaves dominated by more established blocs. The sheer number of Francis appointees might paradoxically create an opening for a candidate perceived as a unifier, someone capable of bridging divides within this diverse group, perhaps focusing as much on effective governance as on specific ideological leanings.
Identifying potential popes involves analyzing the 'papabili' – those cardinals considered plausible candidates for the papacy. It remains, as ever, a notoriously precarious exercise; the old Roman saying holds that "he who enters a conclave as pope exits as a cardinal". History shows that while papabili are sometimes elected, surprises are frequent. This report aims not to predict, but to analyze the landscape, profiling the cardinals most frequently discussed as potential successors, assessing their strengths and weaknesses in the context of the challenges and choices facing the Church after Francis.
Leading Candidates
Certain names consistently emerge in discussions among Vatican observers and appear prominently in betting markets. These cardinals form the top tier of likely candidates, though their high visibility can attract scrutiny and organized opposition within the secret confines of the conclave.
Cardinal Pietro Parolin (Italy, 70)
As Vatican Secretary of State since 2013 (appointed 2013, took office 2014), Cardinal Parolin holds the most powerful position in the Roman Curia and is the highest-ranking cardinal entering the conclave. A veteran diplomat with decades of experience, including service as nuncio to Venezuela, he is fluent in several languages and possesses deep knowledge of geopolitical issues.
Strengths: Parolin is widely considered a leading contender and often viewed as a potential compromise candidate capable of bridging the gap between the Church's progressive and conservative wings. He represents continuity with the Francis papacy, having served as his top diplomat, but is perceived by many as offering a more sober, predictable, and perhaps managerially effective style of governance. His extensive diplomatic background and familiarity with the workings of the Vatican bureaucracy are significant assets. His time in Venezuela gives him insight into the Latin American Church. Furthermore, his election would return the papacy to an Italian after three consecutive non-Italian popes (Poland's John Paul II, Germany's Benedict XVI, Argentina's Francis), a prospect appealing to some traditionalists and Curial elements. His high profile ensures he is well-known to virtually all cardinal electors. Some conservative-leaning cardinals reportedly see him as a reliable figure to potentially moderate or slow the pace of Francis's reforms.
Weaknesses: Parolin's career has been almost entirely diplomatic and administrative; he lacks significant pastoral experience leading a diocese or parish. This contrasts sharply with Pope Francis's emphasis on pastors who "smell like the sheep". His name has been linked, though he was never charged, to the Vatican's costly and controversial London real estate investment scandal, where his Secretariat of State lost tens of millions of euros. He also oversaw the Holy See's highly contested agreement with China regarding bishop appointments. Some Vatican watchers describe him as cautious, even indecisive at times.
Parolin's candidacy highlights a central question for the conclave: after a papacy strong on pastoral vision but sometimes criticized for its management style, do the cardinals prioritize experienced administration and diplomatic skill, potentially correcting perceived weaknesses in Curial governance? Or do they seek to continue the strong pastoral focus embodied by Francis? Parolin clearly represents the experienced administrator, offering stability but a different profile from his predecessor.
Cardinal Luis Antonio Tagle (Philippines, 67)
Often dubbed the "Asian Francis", Cardinal Tagle is seen by many as the candidate most likely to carry forward the spirit and priorities of Pope Francis. Currently serving as Pro-Prefect for the Section of First Evangelisation within the Dicastery for Evangelisation, he was formerly the Archbishop of Manila. Pope Benedict XVI made him a cardinal in 2012.
Strengths: Tagle shares Francis's strong commitment to social justice, the poor, and a more inclusive Church. He has been notably critical of the Church's past use of "harsh words" regarding LGBTQ+ individuals, divorced and remarried Catholics, and unmarried mothers, arguing such language led to isolation. His potential election as the first modern pope from Asia is a significant factor, reflecting the Church's growth and dynamism on that continent. Known for his affable personality and often called "Chito", he could be a media sensation. He is considered a betting favorite and was a trusted figure brought to Rome by Pope Francis. His supporters see him as representing continuity with Francis's progressive agenda.
Weaknesses: His alignment with Francis's more left-leaning politics could be a liability among conservative cardinals seeking a different direction. While experienced in evangelization efforts, he may possess less direct experience navigating the intricacies of Vatican administration compared to someone like Parolin.
Tagle's candidacy embodies the potential culmination of the geographical shift emphasized during the Francis papacy. The election of the first pope from the Global South was a landmark event; electing a successor from Asia would powerfully affirm this realignment and signal the Church's embrace of its growing presence outside Europe and North America.
Cardinal Matteo Zuppi (Italy, 69)
Archbishop of the historic see of Bologna and President of the influential Italian Episcopal Conference (CEI) since 2022, Cardinal Zuppi is widely regarded as a close ally and favorite of Pope Francis. Francis made him a cardinal in 2019. He is a long-time member of the Sant'Egidio Community, known for its work with the poor and peace mediation.
Strengths: Zuppi is seen as embodying Francis's pastoral vision, with a strong emphasis on inclusivity, social justice, and outreach to the marginalized. He is known for his decades of work with the needy, his support for welcoming migrants, and his pastoral openness towards LGBTQ+ Catholics. He gained significant diplomatic experience as Francis's special peace envoy, undertaking missions to Ukraine, Russia, the United States, and China. His popular, down-to-earth image (he famously rides his bicycle around Bologna) and his leadership role in the Italian Church make him a prominent figure. He represents continuity with Francis's pastoral approach.
Weaknesses: His very closeness to Francis could work against him if the conclave mood favors a change in direction or style. His progressive stances on issues like LGBTQ+ outreach are likely to face opposition from more conservative cardinals.
Zuppi presents a potentially compelling profile that might bridge the perceived gap between pastoral leadership and administrative/diplomatic competence. His deep roots in pastoral work through Sant'Egidio and his role as Archbishop of Bologna are complemented by high-level diplomatic engagement on the world stage and leadership within the Italian hierarchy. This blend could appeal to cardinals seeking both a pastor's heart and a capable governor.
Cardinal Péter Erdő (Hungary, 72)
The Archbishop of Esztergom-Budapest and Primate of Hungary, Cardinal Erdő is a highly respected canon lawyer and a leading figure among European conservatives. He served two terms as President of the Council of European Episcopal Conferences (CCEE), demonstrating broad respect on the continent. Pope John Paul II made him a cardinal in 2003 at the young age of 51.
Strengths: Erdő is considered the leading candidate from the conservative wing of the Church, potentially mounting a significant challenge to more progressive frontrunners. He possesses extensive Church contacts across Europe and Africa, built during his time leading the CCEE and his involvement in the New Evangelization drive, a priority for many cardinals. While conservative in theology, emphasizing Europe's Christian roots, he is also seen as pragmatic and has avoided public clashes with Pope Francis. His fluency in multiple languages, including Russian, could be an asset in ecumenical relations, particularly with the Orthodox world. If conservatives seek a candidate who can also build bridges, Erdő might be seen as a compromise figure. His scholarly reputation is strong.
Weaknesses: His conservative positions on issues like denying Holy Communion to divorced and remarried Catholics and his controversial 2015 statement comparing the welcoming of refugees to "human trafficking" place him in direct opposition to Francis's approach on these matters. His stance on refugees seemed to align him with Hungary's nationalist Prime Minister Viktor Orban, raising eyebrows in the Vatican. He is not generally viewed as a charismatic speaker, although some argue this might be an advantage if cardinals desire a calmer, more moderate leadership style after the dynamism of Francis. His election would undoubtedly signal a significant shift away from the priorities of the Francis pontificate.
Erdő clearly anchors the 'correction' end of the spectrum within the College of Cardinals. He appeals to those seeking a renewed emphasis on traditional doctrine, canon law, and perhaps a different approach to contentious social issues like migration. His election would represent a distinct pivot from the Francis era, prioritizing doctrinal clarity and tradition.
Strong Contenders
Beyond the most frequently cited frontrunners lies a group of influential cardinals who could emerge as serious candidates depending on the alliances formed and priorities identified during the pre-conclave discussions and initial rounds of voting. They represent diverse geographical areas and offer different combinations of experience and theological emphasis.
Cardinal Jean-Marc Aveline (France, 66)
The Archbishop of Marseille, Cardinal Aveline has enjoyed a rapid ascent under Pope Francis, who made him a cardinal in 2022. Born in Algeria to a family of Spanish immigrants who moved to France, he possesses doctorates in theology and philosophy. In April 2025, he was elected President of the French Bishops' Conference.
Strengths: Aveline is seen as ideologically close to Pope Francis, particularly regarding immigration, relations with Islam, and interreligious dialogue. He is known for a folksy, easy-going nature combined with serious intellectual depth. His successful organization of a major international Church conference on Mediterranean issues in Marseille in 2023, featuring Pope Francis as the star guest, significantly boosted his standing. At 66, he is relatively young compared to many other contenders. Some French Catholic circles reportedly refer to him as "John XXIV," a nod to his perceived resemblance (physical and ideological) to the reforming Pope John XXIII, a name Francis himself once quipped his successor might take. He is considered by some to be Pope Francis's "favorite" cardinal.
Weaknesses: A significant potential drawback is that he understands Italian but does not speak it fluently. This could be a major impediment for a role that includes being Bishop of Rome and requires navigating the complex Italian-dominated environment of the Vatican Curia. He is also a relatively recent addition to the College of Cardinals.
Aveline's age places him in a potentially attractive window – young enough for a vigorous pontificate, but perhaps not so young as to raise concerns about an overly long reign, a factor that might be weighed after Francis's energetic but health-challenged later years.
Cardinal Mario Grech (Malta, 68)
As Secretary General of the Synod of Bishops, Cardinal Grech occupies a heavyweight position within the Vatican, overseeing Pope Francis's signature initiative of synodality. The former Bishop of Gozo, he was made a cardinal by Francis in 2020 and holds a doctorate in Canon Law.
Strengths: Grech's central role in the synodal process makes him exceptionally well-known among the cardinal electors. He is viewed as a key implementer and "torchbearer" of Francis's reforms. Allies suggest he maintains good relations with both conservative and moderate factions. Hailing from the small nation of Malta means his election would carry little geopolitical baggage. He has stressed his preference for consensus over confrontation and has spoken of the need to reach out pastorally to those who feel ostracized due to their sexuality or marital status.
Weaknesses: Initially perceived as a conservative, his apparent sharp alignment with Francis's later agenda might raise questions about consistency for some. His strong identification with the synodal process, which remains controversial in some quarters, means opposition to synodality could translate into opposition to his candidacy. He faced (and refuted) accusations from some Maltese priests of authoritarian behavior during his time as Bishop of Gozo.
Grech's candidacy is inextricably linked to the future of synodality. His election would be the clearest possible sign that the cardinals intend to embed this consultative, "walking together" approach into the Church's structure and life moving forward. Conversely, if the conclave seeks to pause or redirect the synodal process, Grech's chances would likely diminish significantly.
Cardinal Fridolin Ambongo Besungu (DRC, 65)
The Archbishop of Kinshasa and a member of the Capuchin Friars Minor, Cardinal Ambongo is a powerful and increasingly influential voice from the African continent. He currently serves as President of the Symposium of Episcopal Conferences of Africa and Madagascar (SECAM) and is a member of Pope Francis's Council of Cardinal Advisers (C9). He holds a doctorate in Moral Theology from the Alphonsian Academy in Rome and was created a cardinal by Francis in 2019.
Strengths: Ambongo is recognized as a leading figure for the rapidly growing Church in Africa. He is a passionate advocate for social justice, peace, and good governance, known for his fearless engagement with political issues in the Democratic Republic of Congo. He holds orthodox positions on family life, priestly celibacy, and Church moral teaching. He demonstrated significant leadership and diplomatic skill in unifying the African bishops' response to the controversial Vatican declaration Fiducia Supplicans (regarding blessings for same-sex couples), successfully negotiating an effective opt-out for the continent. His membership on the C9 council places him at the heart of Vatican governance discussions.
Weaknesses: Some observers find his theological expressions, particularly regarding mission and salvation outside the Church, occasionally unclear or contradictory. He has faced accusations of making seditious remarks by authorities in the DRC, which could be perceived as a political liability. His firm stance against Fiducia Supplicans, while demonstrating leadership in Africa, might alienate more progressive cardinals from other regions.
Ambongo represents the growing weight and distinct perspective of the African Church. His leadership role in SECAM and his handling of the Fiducia Supplicans debate underscored Africa's capacity to articulate its own theological and pastoral priorities on the global stage. His election would signify a major consolidation of the Church's shift towards the Global South.
Cardinal Peter Turkson (Ghana, 76)
A long-serving and well-known figure in the Vatican, Cardinal Turkson currently serves as Chancellor of the Pontifical Academies of Sciences and Social Sciences. He was the first Prefect of the Dicastery for Promoting Integral Human Development, established by Pope Francis in 2016, holding the post until late 2021. Previously, he headed the Pontifical Council for Justice and Peace under Pope Benedict XVI and was Archbishop of Cape Coast in Ghana. Pope John Paul II made him a cardinal in 2003. He holds a doctorate in Sacred Scripture from the Pontifical Biblical Institute in Rome.
Strengths: Turkson is a highly visible advocate for Catholic social teaching, vocal on issues like climate change, poverty, migration, and economic justice. He is considered a moderate voice within the Church hierarchy and possesses extensive Vatican experience. Fluent in multiple languages, he has a global perspective and is respected internationally. His election would make him the first Black African pope in modern history. He was considered papabile already in 2013.
Weaknesses: At 76, his age is a potential factor against him if cardinals prefer a younger candidate for a longer pontificate. His departure from the Dicastery for Promoting Integral Human Development in December 2021, following a Vatican-ordered review, was somewhat abrupt and raised questions. While generally seen as aligned with Francis on social issues, his more liberal stances have reportedly caused friction with some conservatives, including within his home country of Ghana.
Turkson's age places him among the older candidates. This could position him as a potential transitional figure, offering experience and continuity on social doctrine without the prospect of a decades-long reign. However, it could also count against him if the electors prioritize youthful vigor.
Cardinal Gérald Lacroix (Canada, 67)
The Archbishop of Quebec and Primate of Canada, Cardinal Lacroix has seen his profile rise significantly under Pope Francis. He was named a cardinal in 2014 and appointed to the influential Council of Cardinal Advisers (C9) in 2023.
Strengths: Lacroix is viewed by some as a potential successor who embodies Francis's pastoral priorities but might offer a more predictable and structured approach to governance. His membership on the C9 provides him with insight into the highest levels of Church administration. At 67, he is relatively young. He recently resumed his duties after voluntarily stepping aside following an accusation of sexual misconduct dating back to the late 1980s; a Vatican-mandated investigation by a retired Canadian judge found no evidence to support the claim and concluded no further canonical procedure was warranted.
Weaknesses: Despite the Vatican investigation's findings (which the accuser declined to participate in), the shadow of the allegation, made public as part of a class-action lawsuit against his archdiocese, could significantly damage his candidacy. In a Church still acutely sensitive to the clergy abuse crisis, cardinals may be hesitant to elect anyone who has faced such accusations, even if unproven or denied. He is not as well-known globally as some other contenders, and Canadian cardinals are generally considered long shots.
The impact of the allegation, even though officially dismissed by the Vatican's investigator, cannot be underestimated. Cardinals tasked with electing a leader to guide the Church forward may well prioritize candidates entirely free from any association with the abuse scandal, making Lacroix's path to the papacy potentially difficult despite his other strengths.
Cardinal Víctor Manuel Fernández (Argentina, 62)
Appointed Prefect of the Dicastery for the Doctrine of the Faith (DDF) in September 2023, Cardinal Fernández is arguably Pope Francis's closest theological collaborator and advisor. The former Archbishop of La Plata and Rector of the Pontifical Catholic University of Argentina, he is often referred to by his nickname "Tucho" and is widely believed to have ghostwritten key papal documents. Francis made him a cardinal in September 2023.
Strengths: Fernández is seen as the "logical heir to Francis' doctrinal legacy", tasked by the Pope himself with promoting theological knowledge rather than pursuing errors. As head of the influential DDF, he holds a key position in shaping the Church's teaching. At 62, he is the youngest among the prominent papabili, potentially offering a long-term continuation of the current pontificate's direction.
Weaknesses: Fernández is a deeply polarizing figure. His appointment as DDF Prefect was controversial, partly due to past theological concerns held by the same Dicastery before Francis's papacy and his authorship of earlier, unconventional books, including one with graphic erotic passages ("Heal Me With Your Mouth: The Art of Kissing") and another described as "catechesis for teens" ("Mystical Passion: Spirituality and Sensuality"). He faced criticism for his handling of at least one clergy abuse case while Archbishop of La Plata, leading Pope Francis to remove responsibility for abuse cases from the DDF's purview under Fernández. Vocations reportedly declined in his archdiocese. He was the principal drafter of Fiducia Supplicans, the declaration allowing non-liturgical blessings for couples in irregular situations, including same-sex couples, which provoked widespread confusion and strong opposition, particularly from Africa. He also restricted the celebration of the Traditional Latin Mass in his former archdiocese before the global restrictions were issued.
Fernández represents the most direct continuation of Pope Francis's theological and pastoral project. His election would signify an emphatic endorsement of that direction. However, the significant controversies surrounding his past actions, writings, and recent work at the DDF make him a high-risk candidate who could easily unite opposition forces seeking a decisive change or correction.
Cardinal Claudio Gugerotti (Italy, 69)
Appointed Prefect of the Dicastery for the Eastern Churches in January 2023, Cardinal Gugerotti is a highly experienced Vatican diplomat and academic. A polyglot, he served as papal nuncio in numerous sensitive posts, including Georgia, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Ukraine, and Great Britain. He holds a doctorate in Oriental Ecclesiastical Sciences and worked at the Congregation for Eastern Churches for many years before his diplomatic career. Pope Francis made him a cardinal in September 2023.
Strengths: Gugerotti possesses unparalleled expertise in the affairs of the Eastern Catholic Churches and relations with Orthodoxy, a critical area given the ongoing war in Ukraine and its ecumenical repercussions. His decades of diplomatic service in challenging regions demonstrate considerable skill and experience. He has a long history of service within the Roman Curia and is considered papabile by some observers. He has previously written against radical liturgical changes.
Weaknesses: Gugerotti has spent almost his entire priestly career in academia, Vatican offices, or diplomatic posts; he has never served as a diocesan bishop or seminary rector, lacking direct pastoral leadership experience at the local level. He is a relatively new cardinal.
Similar to Cardinal Parolin, Gugerotti represents strength in diplomacy and Curial knowledge but a deficit in traditional pastoral leadership. While his expertise in Eastern Christianity is highly relevant, the cardinals must weigh whether this specialized knowledge is the primary requirement for the universal leadership role of the papacy.
Cardinal Pierbattista Pizzaballa (Italy, 60)
The Latin Patriarch of Jerusalem since 2020, Cardinal Pizzaballa is a Franciscan friar who has spent most of his priestly life in the Holy Land. He served for twelve years as the Custos of the Holy Land (2004-2016), the superior of the Franciscans responsible for the holy sites. Pope Francis appointed him Apostolic Administrator of the Latin Patriarchate in 2016 before naming him Patriarch four years later, and then created him a cardinal in September 2023. He is fluent in Italian, English, and modern Hebrew.
Strengths: Pizzaballa possesses unique and extensive experience navigating the extremely complex religious, political, and social dynamics of Jerusalem and the Holy Land, including the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. This experience is seen by some as equipping him well to handle divisions within the wider Church. At 60, he is one of the youngest cardinals considered papabile. He is the first resident Latin Patriarch of Jerusalem ever to be made a cardinal, signaling the region's importance to Pope Francis. He demonstrated courage by offering himself in exchange for Israeli hostages held by Hamas in Gaza. He is known for his focus on the Word of God and has experience in administration from his time as Custos.
Weaknesses: His relative youth could be perceived negatively by cardinals wary of a potentially very long pontificate. His experience, while deep, is largely confined to the specific and unique context of the Holy Land. He is a very recent addition to the College of Cardinals. His appointment as Apostolic Administrator in 2016 was partly aimed at addressing administrative and financial difficulties within the Patriarchate that predated him.
Pizzaballa offers a distinct profile: a Franciscan deeply immersed in the complexities of the Middle East and interreligious dialogue. His election would elevate the significance of the Holy Land and Christian communities in the region, while bringing a leader tested in one of the world's most challenging pastoral and political environments. He combines pastoral leadership with significant administrative experience as Custos and Patriarch.
Cardinal Wim Eijk (Netherlands, 71)
The Archbishop of Utrecht since 2007, Cardinal Eijk brings a unique background to the College of Cardinals. He is a medical doctor with doctorates in both Medicine (specializing in medical ethics) and Philosophy, alongside a Licentiate in Theology. He previously served as Bishop of Groningen-Leeuwarden and was President of the Dutch Bishops' Conference. Pope Benedict XVI made him a cardinal in 2012.
Strengths: Eijk possesses a formidable intellectual background, particularly in bioethics, having written extensively on topics like euthanasia and genetic engineering. He is widely regarded as doctrinally orthodox and a staunch defender of Church teaching on life issues and sexuality. He was a public critic of Pope Francis's apostolic exhortation Amoris Laetitia, particularly regarding communion for the divorced and remarried. His clarity on doctrinal matters appeals to conservatives. He has experience leading a national bishops' conference and speaks multiple languages.
Weaknesses: He leads the Church in the Netherlands, a country experiencing severe secularization and a dramatic decline in Catholic practice, with widespread church closures. His firm conservative stance is seen as rigid by some, and he has faced criticism within the Netherlands for a perceived lack of pastoral flexibility. He suffered a subdural hematoma (brain bleed) in 2001, which, although he fully recovered, might raise questions about long-term health.
Cardinal Eijk stands as another prominent candidate for cardinals seeking a 'correction' towards greater doctrinal clarity and a firmer stance on moral issues, particularly those related to life, marriage, and sexuality. His medical and philosophical background provides a unique lens for addressing complex contemporary ethical challenges.
Table: Key Contenders for the Papacy: A Snapshot
Other Potential Candidates
Beyond the cardinals most frequently tipped for the papacy, a broader group exists. Some are respected elder statesmen, perhaps too old to be elected but influential nonetheless. Others are newer faces or represent specific expertise or geographical regions. These figures could emerge as compromise candidates if the frontrunners falter or if the conclave seeks a very particular set of qualities.
Elder Statesmen & Symbolic Figures:
Cardinal Robert Sarah (Guinea, 80): The former Prefect of the Congregation for Divine Worship (2014-2021) remains a highly influential figure for Catholics attached to tradition, particularly in liturgy. An Archbishop emeritus of Conakry, he gained respect for his quiet resistance to dictatorship in Guinea. While his age makes him ineligible to vote in the conclave and his election virtually impossible, he is a prolific author and represents a significant conservative and traditionalist constituency within the Church. The support he might garner, even symbolically, could indicate the strength of this wing.
Cardinal Christoph Schönborn (Austria, 80): The long-serving Archbishop of Vienna (since 1995) and a Dominican theologian, Schönborn was a student of Joseph Ratzinger (Pope Benedict XVI). This connection, combined with his intellectual stature, makes him a link to the theological legacy of the previous pontificate. Like Sarah, his age precludes him from voting, making his election extremely unlikely, but he represents continuity with a significant period in recent Church history.
Cardinal Antonio Cañizares Llovera (Spain, 79): Archbishop emeritus of Valencia and Toledo, and former Prefect of the Congregation for Divine Worship (2008-2014), Cañizares was often dubbed "Little Ratzinger" for his theological alignment with Pope Benedict XVI. He has extensive pastoral and Curial experience and a background in doctrine and catechesis. While just under the age limit to vote, his advanced age makes election improbable. He represents the significant bloc of cardinals appointed by Benedict XVI.
Cardinal Marc Ouellet (Canada, 80): The former Prefect of the influential Dicastery for Bishops (2010-2023), Ouellet has deep knowledge of the global episcopate and Latin America. However, he is now over 80 and thus ineligible to vote. He is generally seen as conservative and faced unproven abuse allegations which he denied and for which a Vatican investigation found no grounds for trial.
Curial Officials & Regional Leaders:
Cardinal Robert Prevost (USA/Peru, 69): As the current Prefect of the Dicastery for Bishops, Prevost holds one of the most powerful posts in the Vatican, overseeing the selection of bishops worldwide. A Chicago-born Augustinian friar, he spent decades as a missionary and bishop in Peru. This extensive Latin American experience could potentially mitigate the traditional reluctance to elect an American pope due to concerns about US geopolitical influence. Clearly favored by Francis, his relative youth is noted, perhaps seen as a drawback by those wary of a long pontificate. He is a very new cardinal (Sept 2023). Prevost's candidacy directly confronts the "American question."
Cardinal Tarcisio Isao Kikuchi (Japan, 66): The Archbishop of Tokyo and President of Caritas Internationalis, Kikuchi brings a unique perspective. A Divine Word Missionary with experience in Ghana, he represents the Church in Asia and has a strong background in global aid and development. Relatively young and supportive of evangelization and inclusion, he sees Europe itself as a new "periphery" needing evangelization. However, he is the newest cardinal among the likely contenders (Dec 2024) and comes from a nation with a very small Catholic population. He offers another Asian possibility alongside Tagle.
Cardinal Kevin Farrell (USA/Ireland, 77): As Camerlengo of the Holy Roman Church, Farrell holds the crucial role of administering the Holy See during the sede vacante. He is also Prefect of the Dicastery for the Laity, Family and Life. The Dublin-born former Bishop of Dallas is a Vatican insider. However, his age (77) and primarily administrative profile work against him. He also faced scrutiny due to having lived and worked with disgraced former cardinal Theodore McCarrick, though Farrell stated he was unaware of McCarrick's misconduct. While the Camerlengo role is vital, it doesn't typically lead to the papacy.
Cardinal Anders Arborelius (Sweden, 75): The Bishop of Stockholm and Sweden's first-ever cardinal, Arborelius is a convert from Lutheranism and a Discalced Carmelite. He represents the Church in highly secularized Northern Europe. Considered orthodox and a member of the Vatican's Council for the Economy, his leadership style has been described as conflict-averse, potentially leading to administrative issues. He implemented the restrictions on the Traditional Latin Mass quite firmly in his diocese.
Cardinal Juan José Omella (Spain, 79): The Archbishop of Barcelona, Omella is seen as being close to Pope Francis. However, his age makes him an unlikely candidate, and his closeness to Francis could be a disadvantage if the conclave seeks change.
The Traditionalist Wing:
Cardinal Raymond Burke (USA, 76): The former Prefect of the Apostolic Signatura and a leading voice for liturgical and doctrinal traditionalists. Burke has openly clashed with Pope Francis on multiple fronts, including Amoris Laetitia, synodality, and communion for pro-abortion politicians. Francis removed him from key posts and eventually revoked his Vatican salary and subsidized housing. His age, history of confrontation, and perception as divisive make his election virtually inconceivable. However, the number of votes he might receive in early balloting could serve as a barometer for the size and determination of the most strongly traditionalist faction within the conclave.
Conclave Factors
As the cardinal electors gather, first in the General Congregations (pre-conclave meetings) and then within the sealed Sistine Chapel, several key factors will shape their deliberations and ultimate choice.
The Shadow of Francis: The legacy of the first pope from the Global South looms large. Having appointed the vast majority of electors, Francis undoubtedly shaped the body that will choose his successor. Yet, this numerical dominance does not guarantee ideological succession. The central question remains: will the cardinals seek continuity with Francis's pastoral, periphery-focused, synodal path, or will they opt for a correction, perhaps emphasizing doctrinal clarity, traditional practices, or more robust central governance? The critique that Francis sometimes governed around the Curia rather than through it suggests that the desire for "correction" might target administrative style as much as theological direction. The diverse, less cohesive nature of the Francis-appointed college could make consensus difficult, potentially favoring a candidate seen as a unifier rather than a strict continuation or sharp break.
Geopolitics of the College: For centuries, the papacy was largely an Italian affair. The elections of a Pole (John Paul II), a German (Benedict XVI), and an Argentine (Francis) broke that mold. Francis accelerated the globalization of the College of Cardinals. Now, a key dynamic will be the interplay between the still-significant European bloc (particularly the Italians) and the growing number of cardinals from Asia, Africa, and Latin America. Will there be a push to return the papacy to Italy, potentially signaling consolidation and stability? Or will the momentum towards the Global South prove decisive, confirming the Church's demographic shifts at its highest leadership level? The nationality of the next pope will inevitably send a powerful message about the Church's self-understanding and future orientation.
The Ideal Profile: What qualities are the cardinals seeking? The ideal candidate, according to many observers, possesses a blend of pastoral sensitivity ("smelling like the sheep"), intellectual depth, administrative competence, and a truly global vision. Yet, few candidates seem to perfectly embody all these traits. Many strong pastoral figures lack deep Curial experience, while seasoned administrators may lack the common touch. This mismatch creates a central tension. Will the cardinals prioritize a shepherd or a manager? A theologian or a diplomat? Or will they coalesce around a compromise figure perceived as having a reasonable balance of these necessary, sometimes competing, skills? Candidates like Zuppi, Lacroix, or Pizzaballa, who arguably demonstrate competence across multiple domains, might benefit if the conclave seeks such a synthesis.
The Unpredictability Factor: Ultimately, the conclave remains shrouded in secrecy and driven by factors beyond political calculation. The pre-conclave General Congregations allow cardinals, many of whom may not know each other well, to discuss the needs of the Church and discern the necessary qualities for the next pope. Prayer and the invocation of the Holy Spirit are integral to the process. History is replete with unexpected outcomes, reinforcing the caution against definitive predictions.
Conclusion
The death of Pope Francis marks the end of a distinct and impactful era for the Catholic Church. The cardinals now face the solemn task of choosing a successor from a field rich in diversity but perhaps lacking an obvious, unifying frontrunner. The election will likely pivot on the question of continuity versus correction – not just in theological emphasis but also in governance style. Will the next pope continue Francis's focus on pastoral outreach, synodality, and the peripheries, perhaps coming again from the Global South like Luis Antonio Tagle or Fridolin Ambongo Besungu? Or will the cardinals seek a figure perceived as offering greater stability, administrative strength, or doctrinal clarity, potentially turning to an experienced Italian like Pietro Parolin or Matteo Zuppi, or a conservative like Péter Erdő?
Compromise figures, perhaps bridging the pastoral-administrative divide or geographical blocs, such as Jean-Marc Aveline, Mario Grech, Gérald Lacroix, Claudio Gugerotti, or Pierbattista Pizzaballa, could well emerge as the lengthy process unfolds. The influence of specific issues – handling the legacy of the abuse crisis, navigating geopolitical tensions, addressing secularization, managing internal dissent – will weigh heavily on the electors' minds.
Predicting the outcome remains impossible; the dynamics within the Sistine Chapel are famously opaque. The man eventually chosen will inherit a Church grappling with profound challenges: dwindling practice in the West, rapid growth and evolving identities in the Global South, deep internal polarization, and the need to articulate faith in an often skeptical or hostile world. When the white smoke finally curls from the Sistine Chapel chimney, it will signal not just the election of a new pope, but the beginning of a new chapter, one that will inevitably engage with, and be measured against, the complex legacy of Pope Francis.
