Conflict Probability Assessment: A 10-Year Forecast
Conflict Probability Assessment: A 10-Year Forecast
I. A Decade of Global Conflict Risk
An Era of Fragmentation, Competition, and Interconnected Crises
Looking ahead to the period between 2025 and 2035, the world feels particularly unstable. A whole host of interconnected risks seem to be brewing. We're seeing major world powers jostling more intensely, which is changing the dynamics between nations and straining the global systems designed to maintain peace. Meanwhile, the international bodies meant to handle disputes and foster cooperation are finding it harder to keep up with the rising tide of conflict. It's a dangerous combination that increases the odds of missteps, accidental escalations, and crises rapidly spilling across borders and affecting various aspects of life.
The World Economic Forum's (WEF) 2025 Global Risks Report doesn't mince words, describing a "fractured global landscape." It points out that experts globally are most concerned right now about current conflicts worsening or spreading. Recent surveys echo this, suggesting that experts see a greater chance than in past years of events occurring that are both probable and would hit powerful nations hard. We're witnessing a convergence of crises – geopolitical rivalries clashing with the accelerating impacts of climate change, disruptive new technologies shaking things up, persistent economic inequalities, and deepening societal divisions. This confluence creates an unusually challenging global security environment. Conflicts are becoming more tangled, where a local issue could easily ignite broader instability. Troublingly, the traditional mechanisms for conflict management and international cooperation appear to be losing their effectiveness just when they're needed most. This is reflected in reduced investment in multilateral peace operations and the limited success of recent peacemaking efforts. This mix – higher stakes risks, their interconnectedness, and weaker global governance – signals a significantly elevated systemic risk of conflict escalating and spreading over the next decade compared to the recent past.
Overview of Major Conflict Trends and Drivers
Several interconnected factors are feeding this risky environment:
Intensifying Geopolitical Rivalries: The tug-of-war between the United States, China, and Russia is a central dynamic, influencing global alliances, trade patterns, technological development, and regional security arrangements.
Climate Change as a Threat Multiplier: The tangible effects of climate change – like extreme weather events, rising sea levels, and resource scarcity – are no longer just environmental concerns. They've become direct security threats, exacerbating instability, driving migration, and sparking disputes over resources.
Disruptive Technological Advancements: Rapid developments in areas like artificial intelligence (AI), autonomous systems, cyber weaponry, and hypersonic missiles are fundamentally altering the nature of warfare, creating new vulnerabilities, and potentially lowering the threshold for conflict.
Geoeconomic Confrontation: The increasing use of economic tools – sanctions, tariffs, export controls – for strategic purposes is creating new arenas for competition and potential choke points in the global economy.
Societal and Political Fractures: Deep divisions within societies, often amplified by economic inequality and the rapid spread of misinformation (frequently technology-enabled), are eroding trust both domestically and internationally. This hampers collective action and can contribute to internal strife.
Persistent Traditional Drivers: Longstanding issues haven't disappeared. Territorial disputes, historical animosities, ethnic and sectarian tensions, struggles for self-determination, and resource competition continue to be potent triggers for conflict.
Reflecting these trends, state-on-state armed conflict has risen to become the top immediate risk concern among global experts looking towards 2025.
II. The Global Conflict Landscape: Key Trends (2025-2035)
Great Power Rivalry, Shifting Alliances, and Strained Multilateralism
The global order is undergoing a significant transformation. The post-Cold War era, largely defined by US dominance, is giving way to a more contested and fragmented international system. At the heart of this shift lies the intensifying strategic competition between the US and China, casting a long shadow over everything from global trade and technology standards to security partnerships and diplomatic relations. Simultaneously, Russia continues to actively challenge the European security architecture and push for revisions to post-Cold War settlements, most starkly demonstrated by its ongoing war in Ukraine.
We're observing the formation of an emerging, albeit somewhat loose, alignment involving China, Russia, Iran, and North Korea. These countries find common ground in resisting US pressure, circumventing sanctions, and advocating for alternative models of global governance. This cooperation isn't just rhetorical; it involves tangible military and economic support, such as Iranian and North Korean arms flowing to Russia for its war effort, and even speculation about North Korean troops potentially joining the fray. Surveys, like those from the Atlantic Council, reveal considerable expert anxiety about the direction of these rivalries: 40% anticipate a world war (defined as a multi-front conflict involving great powers) by 2035, while 47% foresee a world largely divided into US-aligned and China-aligned blocs by that time.
Adding another layer of complexity is the potential for significant shifts in US foreign policy, particularly the uncertainty surrounding alliance commitments often associated with figures like Donald Trump. Such unpredictability can be inherently destabilizing. While some might argue it keeps adversaries off balance, it could equally backfire by emboldening rivals who perceive weakened deterrence, or by prompting allies to take risky actions out of doubt about US backing. If major powers adopt more confrontational stances and the leading global power's commitments become less certain, smaller states or revisionist powers might sense an opportunity – or feel compelled – to act decisively to secure their interests. They might gamble that the international response will be muted or that traditional security guarantees are unreliable. This dynamic increases the likelihood of conflicts igniting and escalating. Amid these power shifts, multilateral institutions are finding themselves under pressure, struggling with diminished cooperation and finding it increasingly difficult to manage global challenges and mediate disputes.
Drivers of Instability: From Geoeconomics to Climate Stress
Beyond the high politics of great powers, a range of interconnected factors are fueling global instability. Geoeconomic confrontation – the strategic use of sanctions, tariffs, investment screening, and export controls – has emerged as a top current global risk. This trend, fueled by strategic competition and rising protectionism, is leading to regulatory fragmentation and putting pressure on global supply chains. Persistent economic anxieties, including potential downturns, high debt levels, and widening inequality, also contribute to fragility and can spark social unrest and political instability.
Climate change arguably stands out as the most significant long-term driver of instability. Its physical impacts function as a potent threat multiplier. It intensifies resource scarcity (particularly water), drives migration both within and across borders, undermines food security, and increases the likelihood of state fragility and internal conflict, especially in developing nations least equipped to adapt. The strong consensus across expert surveys (like the WEF Global Risks Report) and intelligence assessments (such as the US National Intelligence Estimate on Climate Change) is telling: climate change is transitioning from an indirect stressor to a direct source of specific, identifiable conflict risks. These include disputes over water access, strategic competition in the increasingly accessible Arctic, friction arising from climate-induced migration, and the potential for state breakdown in highly vulnerable regions – all anticipated within the next decade.
Societal polarization, coupled with the pervasive spread of misinformation and disinformation, ranks among the top short-term global risks. These phenomena erode social cohesion, undermine trust in institutions, harden political divides, and significantly impede national and international efforts to address shared challenges. They can act as precursors or accelerants to violence. Demographic shifts, such as the contrast between rapidly aging societies in some parts of the world and large youth bulges in others, also generate distinct economic, social, and political pressures that can contribute to instability.
Technology, Tactics, and Domains
Warfare itself is undergoing a profound transformation, shaped by new technologies and evolving strategic concepts. Future conflicts are increasingly expected to be "hybrid," blending conventional military operations with irregular tactics, information warfare, economic coercion, and political subversion. The importance of information dominance – encompassing command, control, communications, computers, intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance (C4ISR) – is growing, potentially eclipsing traditional metrics like firepower.
Key technological trends reshaping the modern battlefield include:
AI and Autonomy: Artificial intelligence is being integrated into targeting systems, intelligence analysis, and decision support tools. Autonomous and semi-autonomous systems (drones, unmanned ground and maritime vehicles) are proliferating, capable of performing tasks ranging from logistics to lethal force application. The potential development of lethal autonomous weapons systems (LAWS) – machines capable of selecting and engaging targets without direct human intervention – raises profound ethical concerns and escalation risks.
Swarming: The capability to deploy large numbers of interconnected, coordinated unmanned systems ("swarms") presents a significant challenge to traditional defense postures. Swarms can overwhelm adversaries through sheer volume and adaptive tactics.
Long-Range Precision Strike: Advances in missile technology, including hypersonic weapons offering extreme speed and maneuverability, are extending the range, velocity, and accuracy of attacks. This compresses warning and decision timelines and puts previously secure rear areas at risk.
Cyber and Electronic Warfare: Cyber operations are becoming integral components of military campaigns, targeting command and control systems, critical infrastructure, and public perception. Electronic warfare focuses on disrupting adversary sensors and communications.
Space as a Warfighting Domain: The growing reliance on space-based assets for communication, navigation (GPS), and surveillance makes satellites attractive targets. The development of anti-satellite (ASAT) capabilities (using kinetic, electronic, or cyber means) increases the potential for conflict to extend into space.
These technological shifts, combined with pervasive information and disinformation campaigns, create an environment where conflict dynamics can accelerate dramatically. The combination of hypersonic weapons, potential autonomous decision-making, relentless information warfare, and high background tensions creates pathways for rapid, unintended escalation. An incident involving a drone swarm, a cyberattack misinterpreted as a prelude to physical assault, or an AI targeting error could spiral out of control far faster than traditional diplomatic or military command structures can respond. This makes crises inherently more perilous and could even heighten the risk of crossing nuclear thresholds. Consequently, future warfare might involve persistent confrontation blurring the lines between peace and violence, potentially becoming more lethal without necessarily being more effective at achieving political objectives.
III. Regional Conflict Forecasts: Africa (2025-2035)
Africa enters the next decade grappling with a complex array of security challenges, ranging from major civil wars and cross-border insurgencies to persistent localized violence and the intensifying impacts of climate change. Several ongoing conflicts rank among the world's deadliest, and the potential for further instability remains high across multiple regions. External actors continue to play significant, often complicating, roles.
Potential Conflicts in Africa (2025-2035):
Sudan (High Probability):
Key Players: Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF), Rapid Support Forces (RSF), allied militias, Darfuri groups, UAE, Egypt, Iran, Saudi Arabia, US, regional neighbors.
Main Issues: A raw power struggle between generals, external interference, ethnic mobilization, resource competition, and the risk of the state fracturing.
Outlook: The brutal civil war shows few signs of letting up and could worsen. Neither side appears capable of a decisive victory. There's a high risk of prolonged conflict, potential state disintegration, and continued destabilization spilling into neighboring countries like Chad and South Sudan.
Sahel Region Instability (Burkina Faso, Mali, Niger, spilling into Coastal West Africa) (High Probability):
Key Players: JNIM (Al-Qaeda affiliate), ISGS/ISWAP (Islamic State affiliates), national armies, self-defense militias, Russia/Wagner, France (waning influence), Benin, Togo, Ghana, Ivory Coast.
Main Issues: Persistent jihadist insurgency, weak governance structures, military coups, the harsh impacts of climate change, and shifting external involvement (notably Russia supplanting French influence).
Outlook: This region remains an epicenter of jihadist violence, which is actively expanding southward into coastal states like Benin, Togo, Ghana, and Ivory Coast. This appears to be a deliberate strategy aimed at destabilizing a broader area. Expect continued high levels of violence, the potential for state collapse in the core Sahel countries, and further destabilization creeping into coastal neighbors.
Ethiopia (Internal and Regional Tensions) (High Probability):
Key Players: Federal government, Amhara/Oromo forces (OLA), TPLF (potential resurgence), Eritrea, Sudan, Egypt.
Main Issues: Deep disagreements over ethnic federalism, political power struggles, historical grievances, and potential tensions over borders or water resources (GERD dam, relations with Eritrea).
Outlook: Although the Tigray war concluded, significant violence persists in other regions (Oromia, Amhara). Unresolved questions surrounding the ethnic federal system and the presence of heavily armed regional forces create internal fragility. Relations with Eritrea remain complex, and disputes with Egypt/Sudan over the GERD dam continue (though outright war seems unlikely). There's a high risk of continued internal fighting or fragmentation.
DRC / Great Lakes Region (Eastern DRC, Rwanda, Burundi, Uganda) (Medium Probability):
Key Players: Congolese Army (FARDC), M23 rebels (allegedly Rwanda-backed), ADF (IS affiliate), CODECO, Mai-Mai militias, Rwanda Defence Force, Ugandan People's Defence Force, MONUSCO (UN mission, phasing out).
Main Issues: Intense competition over valuable minerals, deep-seated ethnic rivalries, the weakness of the Congolese state, and cross-border interventions (particularly DRC-Rwanda tensions surrounding M23/FDLR).
Outlook: Chronic instability is likely to persist in eastern DRC. Expect continued high levels of violence and humanitarian suffering, with a constant risk of direct confrontation flaring up between the DRC and Rwanda. The planned withdrawal of the UN mission adds another layer of uncertainty.
Nigeria (Multiple Fronts) (Medium Probability):
Key Players: Nigerian military/police, Boko Haram (JAS faction), ISWAP (IS affiliate), bandits, farmer/herder militias, separatist groups (IPOB).
Main Issues: Religious extremism (Northeast), resource competition mixed with banditry and kidnapping (Northwest/Middle Belt), ethnic tensions, organized crime, separatist agitation (Southeast), and limitations in state capacity.
Outlook: Africa's most populous nation will likely continue to battle multiple security crises simultaneously. While state collapse seems improbable, persistent insecurity across various regions will strain resources and impact overall stability.
Somalia (Medium Probability):
Key Players: Somali National Army, ATMIS (AU mission, transitioning out), Al-Shabaab (Al-Qaeda affiliate), clan militias, Ethiopia, Kenya, Gulf states, US forces.
Main Issues: A long-running Islamist insurgency, a weak central government, clan rivalries exploited by Al-Shabaab, regional power competition, and climate shocks (like drought).
Outlook: The fight against Al-Shabaab will likely drag on. The group remains resilient despite government offensives. Expect a protracted struggle as the government faces immense challenges in extending its authority across the country.
Mozambique (Cabo Delgado) (Medium Probability):
Key Players: Mozambique Defence Forces, IS-Mozambique (Ansar al-Sunna/Al-Shabaab), SADC/SAMIM forces, Rwandan forces, Private Military Companies (PMCs).
Main Issues: Underlying poverty and inequality, grievances related to natural gas exploitation, Islamist ideology, and perceived government neglect.
Outlook: The Islamist insurgency is likely to persist, although its intensity might fluctuate. While initial interventions reduced the frequency of attacks, the group has proven adaptable. The conflict poses a threat to major gas projects and carries the risk of spilling over into neighboring Tanzania.
Libya (Low-Medium Probability):
Key Players: GNA-aligned forces (West), LNA (East), various militias, Turkey, Russia, Egypt, UAE.
Main Issues: Political deadlock between rival administrations, competing militias vying for power, and significant foreign interference.
Outlook: A return to the large-scale civil war seen before the 2020 ceasefire seems less likely now; it's more of a fragile stalemate. Foreign backers appear more focused on consolidating their influence rather than pushing for outright victory for their proxies. However, a breakdown remains possible due to the fragmented nature of power.
Central African Republic (CAR) (Low Probability):
Key Players: CAR army, rebel coalitions (CPC), MINUSCA (UN mission), Russia/Wagner Group.
Main Issues: A weak state apparatus, predation by armed groups, competition over resources, and significant Russian influence.
Outlook: Civil war continues, but at a lower intensity. While violence persists, a major escalation threatening the central government seems unlikely, partly because the UN and Wagner presence helps prop up the current administration.
South Sudan (Low Probability):
Key Players: SPLM/SPLA factions, ethnic militias.
Main Issues: An unresolved political settlement stemming from the civil war, persistent ethnic tensions, and disputes over resources.
Outlook: Despite ongoing localized violence, a return to full-scale national conflict appears unlikely. The 2018 peace deal, while flawed, has largely held at the national level. Elites seem invested in maintaining the current fragile power-sharing arrangement.
Western Sahara (Low Probability):
Key Players: Morocco, Polisario Front (SADR), Algeria (backing Polisario).
Main Issues: The disputed status of the territory and the breakdown of a long-standing ceasefire in 2020.
Outlook: Hostilities remain low-intensity, characterized by sporadic exchanges of fire along the defensive wall. A major conventional war is improbable given the significant military imbalance.
Cameroon (Low Probability):
Key Players: Cameroonian military, Anglophone separatist groups, Boko Haram/ISWAP.
Main Issues: The Anglophone crisis (separatism in the Northwest/Southwest regions) and spillover from the Boko Haram conflict (Far North region).
Outlook: Both conflicts involve significant violence but seem unlikely to escalate to the point of destabilizing the entire country or causing state collapse within the next decade.
Chad (Low Probability):
Key Players: Chadian military, various rebel groups.
Main Issues: Issues surrounding political succession and instability spilling over from neighbors (Sudan, Libya, CAR, Niger).
Outlook: Chad is situated in a volatile neighborhood and faces internal challenges, but its military is relatively strong within the region. While vulnerable, a major collapse or full-blown civil war is considered unlikely.
Algeria-Morocco Tensions (Low Probability):
Key Players: Algerian military, Moroccan military.
Main Issues: Longstanding rivalry exacerbated by the Western Sahara dispute and competition for regional influence.
Outlook: Despite diplomatic friction and an ongoing arms race, direct military conflict between these major North African powers is highly unlikely due to domestic priorities and the prohibitive costs involved.
Egypt-Ethiopia (GERD) (Low Probability):
Key Players: Egyptian military, Ethiopian military.
Main Issues: Water security concerns in Egypt regarding the impact of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam on Nile River flows.
Outlook: Egypt views the dam as an existential threat, but despite heated rhetoric, military action seems improbable due to the inherent risks and complexities. Continued negotiations or a tense status quo are more likely outcomes.
Analytical Observations for Africa:
Two key points stand out regarding Africa's conflict landscape. First, the Sahel is solidifying its role as a major hub for transnational jihadist groups. Critically, these groups aren't just contained locally; they are actively pushing southward into coastal West Africa. This geographical expansion widens the conflict zone, posing a growing threat well beyond the traditional Sahelian countries.
Second, external actors – including regional powers, global giants, and non-state groups like Wagner – are increasingly involved and often play decisive roles in major African conflicts (seen in Sudan, the Sahel, Libya, CAR). This outside meddling frequently complicates local power dynamics, tends to fuel fragmentation rather than foster solutions, and undermines the effectiveness of internationally led peace initiatives, effectively locking conflicts into place.
IV. Regional Conflict Forecasts: The Americas (2025-2035)
The Americas present a distinct conflict profile compared to other regions. Major wars between nations are absent and considered unlikely. Instead, several countries are grappling with severe internal conflicts primarily driven by transnational organized crime, political instability, and deep-seated social and economic issues. The spillover effects, particularly migration flows and illicit trade networks, pose significant challenges both regionally and for the United States.
Potential Conflicts in the Americas (2025-2035):
Haiti (High Probability):
Key Players: Rival gang coalitions (G9, G-Pep), the weak Haitian National Police, a Transitional Council, a Kenyan-led international police mission, and potentially the UN.
Main Issues: Effective state collapse, powerful gangs controlling vast territories, a political vacuum, extreme poverty, and historically ineffective international interventions.
Outlook: The situation is projected to remain critical. Gangs have solidified their control, essentially paralyzing the state apparatus. The incoming Kenyan-led mission faces enormous challenges. The outlook is bleak, suggesting continued chaos, mass displacement, and little prospect for stability or elections in the near future. Dialogue with gangs might be tentatively explored, but persistent high violence and state failure are the likely reality.
Mexico (High Probability):
Key Players: Major drug cartels (Sinaloa, CJNG), the Mexican government and security forces, and the US government (DEA, with potential discussions around military intervention).
Main Issues: Intense cartel-driven violence, rampant drug trafficking (especially fentanyl destined for the US), pervasive corruption, and potential shifts in US policy regarding border control, counter-narcotics, and even intervention threats.
Outlook: Mexico is expected to continue enduring high levels of violence as powerful cartels battle for territory and diversify into activities like extortion and smuggling. Endemic corruption significantly hampers state efforts to regain control. Potential friction with the US looms large; aggressive US policies could negatively impact Mexico's stability and paradoxically worsen insecurity. Continued high cartel violence is probable. The risk of a major US-Mexico crisis involving interventionist policies is assessed as Medium.
Colombia (Medium Probability):
Key Players: The Colombian government/military, ELN guerrillas, dissident FARC factions (EMC, Segunda Marquetalia), and the Gulf Clan criminal organization.
Main Issues: The persistent drug trade, illegal mining operations, land disputes, weak state presence in rural zones, and challenges facing President Petro's "Total Peace" strategy.
Outlook: Despite peace initiatives, conflict involving remaining guerrilla groups and powerful criminal organizations is likely to persist, particularly in rural areas. Peace negotiations face significant hurdles, and armed groups have reportedly expanded their territorial control even while talks are ongoing. Persistent violence is expected, though it's unlikely to reach the scale seen in past decades.
Venezuela (Medium Probability):
Key Players: The Maduro government, opposition groups, Colombian armed groups operating within its borders, the Guyana Defence Force, US, Cuba, Russia, China.
Main Issues: Authoritarian rule, a collapsed economy leading to a massive migration crisis, potential leadership succession issues, and a revived territorial dispute with neighboring Guyana over the oil-rich Essequibo region.
Outlook: Venezuela remains vulnerable to internal instability and continued repression. The Essequibo dispute represents a potential external flashpoint; while a full-scale invasion seems unlikely, actions short of war could significantly raise regional tensions. The risk of major internal instability or severe crackdowns is Medium; the risk of significant military conflict with Guyana is assessed as Medium-Low.
Central America (Northern Triangle: Guatemala, Honduras, El Salvador) (Medium Probability):
Key Players: MS-13 gang, Barrio 18 gang, national security forces, with influence from Mexican cartels.
Main Issues: Persistent and brutal gang violence, pervasive poverty, weak governance structures, endemic corruption, vulnerability to climate impacts (droughts, hurricanes) fueling outward migration, and the effects of US deportation policies.
Outlook: This region is likely to continue facing instability driven by powerful gangs and underlying socio-economic problems. El Salvador's heavy-handed crackdown reduced homicide rates but raises long-term questions about sustainability and human rights. Spillover effects from neighbors and the influence of Mexican cartels add to the risk profile. Continued high levels of criminal violence and socio-political instability are likely (Medium probability); the risk of interstate conflict remains Low.
Ecuador (Medium Probability):
Key Players: Local gangs (often linked to Mexican/Colombian cartels) and Ecuadorian security forces.
Main Issues: Ecuador's emergence as a key cocaine transit route has led to a dramatic surge in violence, fierce competition between local gangs affiliated with larger international cartels, and weak state institutions struggling to cope.
Outlook: The country experienced a shocking rise in violence, marked by soaring homicide rates and brutal prison riots. Despite the government declaring an "internal armed conflict," the security crisis is likely to persist due to the deep roots of organized crime. Sustained high levels of criminal violence challenging the state are probable.
Peru (Low Probability):
Key Players: Peruvian security forces and remnants of the Shining Path insurgency (MPCP faction).
Main Issues: Lingering remnants of the insurgency (now primarily involved in the drug trade), significant political instability, and widespread social discontent.
Outlook: A major resurgence of the Shining Path insurgency seems highly unlikely. The remaining factions lack the capacity for a national campaign. Political turmoil and protests are more probable drivers of violence than a renewed insurgency.
Brazil (Low Probability):
Key Players: Federal and state security forces, major urban criminal factions (PCC, Comando Vermelho), illegal loggers/miners, and indigenous groups.
Main Issues: Chronic urban gang violence, with factions controlling favelas and prisons, alongside violent land conflicts in the Amazon region linked to deforestation and illegal mining.
Outlook: While serious, this violence is unlikely to escalate into a nationwide civil conflict or pose an existential threat to the Brazilian state within this timeframe.
Jamaica (Low Probability):
Key Players: Jamaican Constabulary Force and various local gangs.
Main Issues: Persistently high rates of gang violence, often fueled by the drug trade and historical political affiliations.
Outlook: The violence is severe at a local level but is unlikely to escalate into large-scale armed conflict that threatens national stability.
US Internal Political Violence (Low-Medium Probability):
Key Players: Domestic extremist groups (across the political spectrum), lone actors, and federal/state law enforcement agencies.
Main Issues: Heightened political polarization, eroding trust in institutions, concerns about the rise of domestic extremism, and potential disputes surrounding elections.
Outlook: Acts of domestic terrorism or politically motivated violence carried out by individuals or small groups are possible. However, widespread organized political violence or civil conflict remains unlikely.
Analytical Observations for The Americas:
Two main themes emerge regarding the Americas. First, the predominant security threat isn't traditional warfare or ideologically driven political insurgencies, but rather powerful, often transnational, organized crime groups. Fueled primarily by drug profits, these groups employ extreme violence, directly challenge state authority, corrupt institutions, and fuel instability across Mexico, Central America, and parts of South America (notably Colombia and Ecuador). This reality demands different analytical frameworks and policy responses compared to state-based conflicts elsewhere.
Second, US policy acts as a significant external factor influencing stability, particularly in Mexico and Central America. Domestic US concerns regarding border security, migration, and drug flows increasingly shape foreign policy decisions that can have destabilizing effects on neighboring countries. Experts identify the potential for aggressive US actions – such as military intervention against cartels or mass deportations – as a distinct risk factor that could provoke crises or inadvertently worsen the very problems they aim to address.
V. Regional Conflict Forecasts: Asia (2025-2035)
Asia arguably presents the most complex and potentially dangerous security landscape for the coming decade. It features a volatile combination of major ongoing wars, high-intensity internal conflicts, unresolved historical disputes, and multiple potential flashpoints involving nuclear-armed major powers. The sheer concentration and severity of risks in this region make it a critical area of focus.
Potential Conflicts in Asia (2025-2035):
Myanmar (High Probability):
Key Players: The Military Junta (SAC), the National Unity Government (NUG) and its People's Defence Forces (PDFs), various Ethnic Armed Organizations (EAOs like the Three Brotherhood Alliance, KIA, AA), and China.
Main Issues: A brutal civil war following the coup, deep-seated ethnic grievances, the junta's lack of legitimacy, significant territorial gains by resistance forces, and complex Chinese influence.
Outlook: The civil war is expected to continue with high intensity. Resistance forces are seriously challenging the junta's control, especially in border regions. China's role is multifaceted and influential. The military appears stretched thin. Expect protracted conflict, potential further fragmentation of the country, a deepening humanitarian crisis, and the risk of spillover into neighboring countries (China, India, Thailand). Any elections planned by the junta are likely to be violent and lack legitimacy.
Afghanistan/Pakistan Instability (High Probability):
Key Players: The Taliban government in Afghanistan, the Pakistani military and government, Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), Islamic State Khorasan Province (IS-K), and Baloch insurgent groups.
Main Issues: A surge in cross-border attacks by the TTP operating from Afghanistan into Pakistan, the existence of TTP safe havens, a significant IS-K presence launching attacks in both countries, the ongoing Baloch insurgency, political instability within Pakistan, and border disputes (Durand Line).
Outlook: This remains a persistently high-risk area. Tensions between the Taliban regime and Islamabad over border security and the TTP issue could easily lead to direct clashes. Expect continued cross-border militancy, rising instability within Pakistan itself, and a persistent threat from IS-K.
Israel-Palestine Conflict & Regional Spillover (High Probability):
Key Players: Israel, Hamas, the Palestinian Authority (PA), Hezbollah (Lebanon), Iran, Syria, the Houthi movement (Yemen), the US, Qatar, Egypt.
Main Issues: The ongoing Israeli occupation and potential annexation moves, the devastating aftermath of the Gaza war, high tensions and violence in the West Bank (driven by settlements), an acute risk of a full-blown Israel-Hezbollah war, the potential for a wider Iran-Israel confrontation involving regional proxies (Syria, Iraq, Yemen), Houthi attacks on Red Sea shipping drawing in the US and allies, and concerns over Iran's nuclear program.
Outlook: This conflict is expected to remain a major source of violence and regional instability. Gaza faces a profound humanitarian catastrophe. The risk of a full-scale war between Israel and Hezbollah is acute. The potential for direct escalation between Iran and Israel (possibly involving strikes on nuclear facilities) is a significant concern. Continued high levels of violence between Israelis and Palestinians, along with clashes on the Israel-Lebanon border, are highly likely. A major Israel-Hezbollah war or significant Iran-Israel escalation is assessed as having a High-Medium probability.
Yemen (High Probability):
Key Players: The Houthi movement (controlling the North), the Presidential Leadership Council (PLC) government (based in the South), the Southern Transitional Council (STC - secessionist), Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP), Saudi Arabia, UAE, Iran, and the US/UK (involved in Red Sea operations).
Main Issues: De facto Houthi control versus the internationally recognized PLC, deep divisions within the anti-Houthi coalition (particularly Southern secessionism), the lingering presence of AQAP, complex regional rivalries, and the internationalization of the conflict's impact through Houthi attacks in the Red Sea.
Outlook: Despite a truce holding relatively well since 2022 and ongoing peace efforts, the underlying drivers of conflict persist. The Houthi attacks in the Red Sea triggered a Western military response. Implementing any comprehensive peace agreement remains extremely difficult. Continued instability, localized clashes, and Houthi actions disrupting regional security are highly likely. There is a Medium probability of a return to full-scale civil war.
Syria (High Probability):
Key Players: Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS - emerging as dominant post-Assad), the Turkish-backed Syrian National Army (SNA), the US-backed Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), ISIS remnants, Turkey, Russia, Iran, the US, Israel.
Main Issues: Profound instability following the collapse of the Assad regime (late 2024), challenges for HTS in establishing governance, potential for widespread disorder and sectarian tensions, conflict between various armed factions, jockeying for influence by external powers, the unresolved Kurdish question, the risk of an ISIS resurgence, and continued Israeli airstrikes.
Outlook: Syria has entered a new era of deep uncertainty. There is a high risk of clashes between HTS and the SNA/Turkey, as well as between HTS and the SDF/US. ISIS could exploit the power vacuum. External powers are actively maneuvering for influence. Continued instability and conflict between successor groups are highly likely.
US-China Confrontation over Taiwan (Medium-High Probability):
Key Players: China (PLA), Taiwan (ROC Armed Forces), the US, Japan, Australia, Philippines.
Main Issues: China's stated goal of reunification (with force not ruled out), Taiwan's de facto independence and democratic system, US policy of strategic ambiguity but likely intervention in case of attack, China's rapidly growing military capabilities, Taiwan's political trajectory, and the inherent risk of accidents or miscalculation between militaries operating in close proximity.
Outlook: This stands as one of the world's most dangerous flashpoints. Expert surveys indicate a growing belief that China will resort to force within the next decade. War scenarios consistently suggest a devastating conflict with massive global repercussions. The stakes for global stability are immense.
South China Sea Clashes (Medium Probability):
Key Players: China (Coast Guard/Navy/Maritime Militia), Philippines, Vietnam, Malaysia, Brunei, Taiwan, US.
Main Issues: China's expansive territorial claims (the "nine-dash line"), its militarization of artificial islands, overlapping claims by other regional states, competition over resources (fisheries, energy), US Freedom of Navigation Operations (FONOPs), and the US-Philippines mutual defense treaty.
Outlook: Persistent tension is the baseline. Frequent low-level confrontations, particularly Chinese harassment of vessels from other claimant states (especially the Philippines), are expected. The main risk lies in an incident (such as a collision or blockade) escalating, either intentionally or unintentionally, into armed confrontation, which could potentially draw in the US via its treaty obligations to the Philippines.
Korean Peninsula Escalation (Medium Probability):
Key Players: North Korea (DPRK), South Korea (ROK), the US, China, Russia, Japan.
Main Issues: North Korea's advancing nuclear and missile programs, its increasingly hostile rhetoric towards South Korea, strengthening military ties with Russia (including reports of sending troops to Ukraine), uncertainty over the US security commitment to South Korea (potential Trump effect, leading to ROK nuclear considerations), and the risk of miscalculation or limited clashes spiraling out of control.
Outlook: This remains a highly volatile region. While a full-scale invasion seems unlikely, the primary dangers stem from miscalculation, limited border clashes escalating rapidly, or even the potential for North Korean nuclear use (a scenario causing growing expert concern).
India-Pakistan Conflict (Medium-Low Probability):
Key Players: India, Pakistan.
Main Issues: The disputed region of Kashmir, allegations of cross-border terrorism emanating from Pakistan, deep-seated historical animosity, domestic political considerations in both countries, and the nuclear dimension.
Outlook: There is a persistent risk of a major crisis or limited war erupting. Past crises have often been triggered by major terrorist attacks in India blamed on Pakistan-based groups. While nuclear weapons likely induce a degree of caution, the potential for miscalculation during a high-stakes crisis remains significant.
Iraq (Medium-Low Probability):
Key Players: The Iraqi government and security forces, the Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF - including powerful Iran-backed militias), Kurdish Peshmerga forces, ISIS remnants, Turkey (conducting operations against the PKK), Iran, US.
Main Issues: Political fragmentation, the significant influence of powerful militias, the lingering threat from ISIS remnants, tensions between Baghdad and the Kurdish regional government, and external interference (Iran, Turkey, US).
Outlook: A return to large-scale civil war like the post-2003 period seems unlikely. However, the potential for a renewed ISIS insurgency, clashes between militias, or conflict arising from Kurdish disputes or external rivalries contributes to chronic instability.
Iran-Israel Direct Conflict (Medium-Low Probability):
Key Players: Iran, Israel, with potential US involvement.
Main Issues: A long history of proxy warfare and covert conflict, an increased risk of direct state-on-state confrontation, potential triggers (such as Iran achieving nuclear "breakout," a major proxy attack leading to massive Israeli retaliation hitting Iran directly, or Israeli strikes on sensitive Iranian facilities), and the broader regional power struggle.
Outlook: The risk of direct conflict has notably increased, ranked as a top-tier risk by CFR experts for 2025. Contributing factors include a perception of increased Israeli risk tolerance and capability, and potentially a weakened Iranian proxy network pushing Tehran towards more direct action. This creates a highly volatile dynamic.
India-China Border War (Low Probability):
Key Players: India, China.
Main Issues: Tensions along the Line of Actual Control (LAC) remain high following deadly clashes in 2020, a significant military buildup by both sides, unresolved border disputes, and broader strategic competition.
Outlook: Despite the ongoing tensions and military posturing, both nuclear-armed powers appear motivated to avoid a full-scale war, preferring dialogue and localized military maneuvering.
Central Asian Instability (Low Probability):
Key Players: Governments and militaries of Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan; various ethnic groups, extremist groups, Russia, China.
Main Issues: Potential internal stress from authoritarian transitions, underlying ethnic tensions (especially in the Fergana Valley), disputes over water resources, the risk of Islamist extremism spilling over from Afghanistan, and great power rivalry (Russia/China).
Outlook: Major interstate war or state collapse is considered unlikely due to relatively strong (often authoritarian) state control and the significant influence exerted by Moscow and Beijing.
Philippines Internal Conflict (NPA, Mindanao) (Low Probability):
Key Players: Philippine military/police, the New People's Army (NPA - communist insurgency), Abu Sayyaf remnants, BIFF, Maute remnants (Islamist groups primarily in Mindanao).
Main Issues: A long-running communist insurgency and persistent Islamist separatism/extremism, compounded by governance challenges.
Outlook: These conflicts are largely contained and operate at a lower intensity compared to past decades. Major escalation threatening national stability appears unlikely.
Kurdish Conflict Escalation (Turkey, Syria, Iraq, Iran) (Low Probability):
Key Players: Turkey, Syria, Iraq, Iran; PKK, PJAK, YPG/SDF, KDP/PUK (representing various Kurdish groups across the region).
Main Issues: Kurdish aspirations for greater rights, autonomy, or independence across four states, often met with state repression, and ongoing conflicts (particularly Turkey's campaign against the PKK and its affiliates).
Outlook: Prospects for a coordinated, large-scale uprising or a major interstate war focused primarily on the Kurdish issue seem remote, hindered by internal Kurdish divisions and the military strength of the states involved.
Thailand (Southern Insurgency / Political Violence) (Low Probability):
Key Players: Thai military/police, Malay-Muslim insurgents (in the South), various political factions (centered in Bangkok).
Main Issues: A persistent low-level ethno-nationalist insurgency in the southern border provinces, alongside periodic episodes of intense political polarization and instability in Bangkok.
Outlook: Neither the southern insurgency nor Bangkok's political turmoil seems likely to escalate into widespread civil war or state collapse within this timeframe.
Bangladesh (Political Instability / CHT Conflict) (Low Probability):
Key Players: Bangladesh government/security forces, the main political opposition, armed ethnic minority groups in the Chittagong Hill Tracts (CHT).
Main Issues: Intense political rivalry between the ruling Awami League and the opposition BNP, coupled with a low-level conflict in the CHT related to autonomy demands.
Outlook: Major internal conflict threatening the integrity of the state is unlikely.
Indonesia (Papua) (Low Probability):
Key Players: Indonesian military/police, factions of the Free Papua Movement (OPM).
Main Issues: A long-running, low-level insurgency seeking independence for the Papua region, fueled by grievances over resource exploitation and alleged human rights abuses.
Outlook: Sporadic violence occurs, but the Indonesian state maintains firm control over the region. Significant escalation appears unlikely.
Analytical Observations for Asia:
Asia clearly stands out as the region where the most dangerous global security risks converge. It hosts ongoing major wars (Myanmar, potential Mideast spillover), deadly internal conflicts (Afghanistan/Pakistan), and multiple high-stakes flashpoints involving nuclear powers (Taiwan, Korea, South China Sea, India/Pakistan, Iran/Israel). This concentration of severe and diverse risks, coupled with the potential for crises to interact (imagine the US being drawn into simultaneous conflicts in the Middle East and East Asia), makes the potential for large-scale, multi-actor conflict with devastating global consequences significantly higher here than elsewhere.
Furthermore, the rivalry between Iran and Israel seems to have entered a new, more dangerous phase. Fueled by the fallout from the Gaza war and Iran's nuclear advancements, the dynamic has shifted beyond proxy conflicts and covert operations to a point where direct state-on-state military confrontation is now viewed as a top-tier global risk. Factors contributing to this include Israel's perceived greater willingness to strike Iran directly, Iran's potentially weakened proxy network pushing it towards more direct responses, and internal pressures within Iran that might favor pursuing nuclear weaponization. This creates an exceptionally volatile situation where miscalculation could have catastrophic results.
VI. Regional Conflict Forecasts: Europe (2025-2035)
Europe's security landscape over the next decade will be overwhelmingly shaped by the consequences of Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine and the resulting tense standoff between Russia and NATO. While other potential friction points exist, particularly in the Balkans, the sheer scale and impact of the Russia-Ukraine war, along with the risk of its escalation, overshadow all other concerns.
Potential Conflicts in Europe (2025-2035):
Russia-Ukraine War (High Probability):
Key Players: Russia, Ukraine, NATO member states (providing crucial support), North Korea (potentially sending troops to aid Russia).
Main Issues: Russian revisionism and expansionist aims, Ukraine's determined fight for sovereignty and survival, and the critical dynamics of Western support (especially potential shifts in US policy).
Outlook: Europe's largest conventional war since World War II is highly likely to continue in some form. Russia currently holds the battlefield initiative but is incurring heavy costs. Ukraine remains heavily reliant on Western aid, the future levels of which are uncertain. The conflict might be approaching a crucial turning point. Scenarios range from continued intense fighting with potential further Russian gains (particularly if Western support falters), to a bloody stalemate, or eventually settling into a frozen conflict characterized by a heavily militarized and volatile contact line. Meaningful negotiations face immense obstacles (occupied territory, Ukraine's future alignment). The conflict continuing, whether as active warfare or a volatile frozen state, is highly probable.
Russia-NATO Direct Conflict (Medium-Low Probability):
Key Players: Russia, NATO member states (especially those on the eastern flank like the Baltic states and Poland), US.
Main Issues: Potential spillover from the Ukraine war, miscalculation or accidents between Russian and NATO forces operating in close proximity (Black Sea, Baltic Sea), major cyberattacks causing physical damage, deliberate Russian actions designed to test NATO resolve and Article 5 commitments, or shifts in US policy that weaken perceived deterrence.
Outlook: The risk of such a conflict has significantly increased since Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Expert surveys reveal a rising expectation of such a clash occurring. While statistically less likely than the Ukraine war continuing, the potential impact (given the nuclear dimension) makes this arguably the most dangerous global scenario.
Balkan Instability (Serbia, Kosovo, Bosnia) (Medium-Low Probability):
Key Players: Serbia, Kosovo, Bosnia (its constituent entities and ethnic groups), NATO (KFOR mission in Kosovo), the EU, US, Russia.
Main Issues: The unresolved status of Kosovo, Serbian nationalism, the inherent fragility of Bosnia and Herzegovina (particularly secessionist threats from Republika Srpska), and competing external influences (EU/US versus Russia).
Outlook: The Western Balkans remain susceptible to flare-ups of ethnic tension and political crises that could lead to localized violence. The presence of NATO and the EU acts as a constraint, but underlying tensions persist, making periodic crises likely.
Moldova/Georgia Instability (Medium-Low Probability):
Key Players: Russia, Moldova, Georgia, authorities in the breakaway regions of Transnistria (Moldova) and Abkhazia/South Ossetia (Georgia), the EU, US.
Main Issues: Russian pressure on countries seeking closer ties with the EU and NATO (reflecting its "near abroad" doctrine), unresolved conflicts involving Moscow-backed separatist regions, internal political vulnerabilities, and ongoing Western integration efforts.
Outlook: Both Moldova and Georgia face persistent destabilization efforts orchestrated by Russia. Moscow might exploit internal divisions or undertake limited military actions to thwart further Western integration, especially if it perceives weakness or distraction elsewhere. Increased Russian provocations are rated as a high likelihood/moderate impact risk by CFR experts.
Belarus Instability/Collapse (Low Probability):
Key Players: The Lukashenka regime and its security forces, opposition movements, Russia.
Main Issues: The regime's heavy dependence on Russia, repressed internal dissent, potential uncertainty surrounding succession, and increasing Russian dominance.
Outlook: Major internal conflict seems unlikely unless triggered by a sudden regime crisis, a significant shift in Russian policy, or major spillover effects from the war in Ukraine. Moscow appears invested in maintaining stability under Lukashenka, albeit with ever-increasing Russian control.
Arctic Military Clashes (Low Probability):
Key Players: Russia, US, Canada, Norway, Denmark, other NATO allies.
Main Issues: Climate change opening up access to shipping routes and resources (oil, gas, minerals), an increasing military buildup (especially by Russia, but also NATO), and intensifying strategic competition.
Outlook: Competition in the Arctic is certainly heating up, but direct military clashes between Russia and NATO forces in the High North remain unlikely within the next decade. The harsh environment and vast distances impose significant constraints, and the risks involved likely outweigh potential gains for now.
Nagorno-Karabakh Aftermath (Armenia-Azerbaijan) (Low Probability):
Key Players: Armenia, Azerbaijan, Russia, Turkey, Iran.
Main Issues: The aftermath of Azerbaijan's decisive military victory in 2023, persistent tensions along the border (related to demarcation and transport corridors like the proposed Zangezur corridor), and a shifting regional power balance (notably Turkey's increased influence).
Outlook: The long-running conflict over Nagorno-Karabakh has largely concluded with Azerbaijan's victory. A return to large-scale conventional warfare between Armenia and Azerbaijan seems unlikely.
North Caucasus Insurgency (Russia) (Low Probability):
Key Players: Russian federal and local security forces, IS-affiliated groups, local militants.
Main Issues: Remnants of past Islamist insurgencies (particularly in Chechnya and Dagestan), local grievances, and the potential weakening of federal control due to the strain imposed by the war in Ukraine.
Outlook: Large-scale, organized insurgency in the North Caucasus has been suppressed. A major resurgence appears unlikely, despite the potential strains on Moscow's resources.
Analytical Observations for Europe:
Europe's security environment for the next decade is fundamentally defined by Russia's aggression and the resulting confrontation with Ukraine and NATO. The war in Ukraine is the continent's dominant active conflict. Crucially, however, security experts perceive a significantly elevated risk of this conflict escalating into a direct clash between Russia and NATO. This possibility, however remote statistically, represents the most catastrophic potential scenario in Europe, overshadowing other regional risks like Balkan instability.
Furthermore, the trajectory of US foreign policy emerges as a critical variable. Uncertainty surrounding the strength and reliability of US commitments to NATO, particularly under potential future administrations, introduces significant volatility into the European security equation. This ambiguity could potentially tempt Russia to test NATO's resolve on its eastern flank, while simultaneously compelling European states to undertake potentially destabilizing recalculations regarding their own defense postures, fundamentally altering the continent's security architecture.
VII. Regional Conflict Forecasts: Oceania (2025-2035)
Oceania, encompassing the vast expanse of the Pacific Islands, presents a unique security landscape. Here, the most significant threats stem not from traditional interstate warfare but from the severe impacts of climate change, internal governance challenges, competition over resources, and the growing geopolitical rivalry between the US (and its allies like Australia and France) and China.
Potential Conflicts in Oceania (2025-2035):
Climate Change-Induced Instability & Resource Conflict (High Probability):
Key Players: Pacific Island governments, local communities, international aid organizations, neighboring states (especially concerning migration and maritime boundaries).
Main Issues: An existential threat posed by accelerating sea-level rise, more intense storms, and ocean warming/acidification. Direct impacts include coastal erosion, freshwater contamination, infrastructure damage, and declining fisheries. These lead to internal displacement, localized disputes over scarce land and water, potential tensions surrounding migration, shifting maritime boundaries, and competition over dwindling fish stocks.
Outlook: This is the most pervasive driver of instability across the region. Pacific leaders widely regard it as the greatest security threat, acting as a potent "threat multiplier." There is a high likelihood of localized instability and resource disputes directly fueled by climate impacts.
Internal/Inter-communal Violence (Specific Hotspots: PNG, Solomons, Fiji) (Medium Probability):
Key Players: National governments and security forces, various tribal and ethnic groups, political factions, and external actors seeking influence.
Main Issues: Weak state capacity in some areas, competition over resources and political power, underlying ethnic and tribal divisions, historical grievances, and the potential for these issues to be exacerbated by external interference.
Outlook: Several countries face the potential for flare-ups. Key areas of concern include tribal fighting in the Papua New Guinea Highlands; historical ethnic and political tensions in the Solomon Islands (potentially worsened by the controversy surrounding its security pact with China); and underlying tensions in Fiji, which has a history of coups. Significant flare-ups in these hotspots, possibly fueled by outside influence, are possible.
Instability Linked to Independence Movements (Bougainville, New Caledonia) (Medium Probability):
Key Players: Independence movements (Kanaky movement in New Caledonia, the Bougainville government), national governments (PNG, France), various local factions, and potential external supporters (the US has been mentioned regarding Bougainville).
Main Issues: Aspirations for self-determination, disputes over the control of natural resources, and complex political maneuvering involving local and external actors.
Outlook: Bougainville voted overwhelmingly for independence from PNG and is now negotiating a timeline (aiming for around 2027); delays or disagreements in this process could spark instability. New Caledonia faces deadlocked politics between pro-independence Kanaks and loyalists, leading to recurring periods of unrest. Significant unrest or localized conflict related to these movements is possible, though a full-scale secessionist war remains unlikely.
Direct Military Clashes (Great Power Rivalry) (Low Probability):
Key Players: US, China, Australia, France, Japan, Pacific Island nations (potentially hosting facilities or access).
Main Issues: Intensifying US-China strategic competition manifesting through diplomatic efforts, aid programs, security pacts (like the US Compacts of Free Association, the Australia-PNG agreement, and the China-Solomons pact), and a growing military presence (bases, port visits, exercises). There's also the risk of accidental encounters or escalation spilling over from a wider crisis (e.g., involving Taiwan).
Outlook: The great power rivalry undoubtedly increases regional tension, but direct armed conflict between major powers within Oceania itself remains unlikely. It's more probable as a spillover effect from a conflict elsewhere (like East Asia). The main risk is indirect: the competition destabilizing local politics and governance.
State Collapse (Smaller Island Nations) (Low Probability):
Key Players: National governments, local populations, regional organizations (like the Pacific Islands Forum), and international aid actors.
Main Issues: Genuine existential threats from climate change, particularly sea-level rise, for the smallest low-lying atoll nations (e.g., Tuvalu, Kiribati, Marshall Islands). This is compounded by economic fragility (heavy reliance on aid, limited resources) and constrained state capacity.
Outlook: The long-term viability of some of the lowest-lying nations is seriously questionable. However, complete state collapse leading to anarchy within the next decade seems unlikely due to factors like social cohesion, regional support mechanisms, and international aid focused on adaptation and potential migration pathways. Severe hardship and displacement are likely, but total state failure is improbable in this timeframe.
Analytical Observations for Oceania:
Climate change is undeniably central to Oceania's security considerations. Pacific leaders consistently frame it as the primary, existential threat, profoundly shaping regional politics and potential conflict dynamics. This perspective often clashes with the focus of external powers, which tend to prioritize the US-China strategic competition. Conflict risk in Oceania arises both directly from climate impacts (resource scarcity, displacement) and indirectly through the governance challenges and geopolitical maneuvering surrounding climate finance, adaptation strategies, and resource access.
Second, while direct military conflict between major powers within Oceania itself is improbable, the US-China rivalry poses significant indirect risks. This competition can exacerbate internal governance weaknesses, fuel corruption, undermine regional unity (like within the Pacific Islands Forum), and prioritize external strategic agendas over local needs and priorities. The most likely conflict impact of this rivalry is its potential to fuel internal instability and fragmentation within Pacific Island Countries, thereby increasing their vulnerability, as arguably seen in the political turbulence surrounding the Solomon Islands' security arrangements.
VIII. Potential Escalation Pathways
Beyond specific regional hotspots, several cross-cutting risks have the potential to significantly shape the global conflict landscape over the next decade.
The Nuclear Shadow: Proliferation and Escalation Scenarios
Risks associated with nuclear weapons appear to be growing, encompassing both the potential spread of these weapons to new states and a perceived higher likelihood of their use by existing nuclear powers. Expert surveys reflect heightened anxiety: an Atlantic Council poll revealed that 48% expect nuclear weapons to be used by at least one actor by 2035, a significant increase. Russia and North Korea are frequently cited as posing risks of use, particularly in scenarios linked to regional conflicts or regime survival.
Simultaneously, the specter of proliferation looms large: 88% of experts surveyed anticipate at least one additional country acquiring nuclear weapons within the next ten years. Iran is overwhelmingly viewed as the most probable candidate (a prediction shared by nearly 75% of experts). Concerns also linger about potential proliferation cascades in East Asia (possibly involving South Korea or Japan) driven by anxieties over North Korea's capabilities and the reliability of US security guarantees. This combination – heightened anxiety about use, plausible escalation pathways in major power confrontations (US-China/Taiwan, Russia-NATO), and active proliferation concerns – suggests that the nuclear taboo and the stability of deterrence might be eroding. While the absolute probability of nuclear use might remain low, the perceived risk is considerably higher than in recent decades, making nuclear escalation a critical cross-cutting concern.
Climate Change as a Catalyst for Conflict
Climate change acts as a global stressor, intensifying existing societal problems and creating new points of friction. It fuels competition over increasingly scarce resources like water and arable land, drives migration flows that can cause social and political tension, undermines food security (potentially triggering unrest), and weakens the capacity of states, especially fragile ones, to manage crises effectively. Environmental risks consistently rank among the top long-term global concerns in expert surveys.
Moreover, the global response to climate change itself is becoming an arena for geopolitical and economic competition. New potential conflict zones are emerging, such as the Arctic, where melting ice opens up access to resources and shipping routes, leading to increased military activity. Competition is also intensifying over the critical minerals and technologies essential for the clean energy transition, adding another layer to existing great power rivalries. Climate change, therefore, functions both as a direct driver of localized conflict and as a factor reshaping broader strategic competition.
Wildcards: AI, Cyber, and Space Warfare
Rapid technological advancements introduce both opportunities and significant new risks for conflict dynamics:
AI and Information Warfare: The weaponization of information, supercharged by generative AI, poses a severe threat. AI enables the creation and dissemination of sophisticated misinformation and disinformation at an unprecedented scale, eroding trust in institutions, deepening societal polarization, manipulating public opinion, and potentially inciting violence or severely complicating crisis management. This is consistently ranked as a top short-term global risk.
Cyber Warfare: Attacks targeting critical infrastructure – energy grids, financial systems, communication networks – represent a growing concern. Such attacks have the potential to cause widespread disruption or even physical damage. State-sponsored hacking capabilities are increasingly sophisticated, and cyber operations are becoming integrated into military planning and doctrine.
Autonomous Weapons: The ongoing development of lethal autonomous weapons systems (LAWS) raises profound fears about unintended escalation, accountability gaps (the "responsibility gap"), and the prospect of machines making life-or-death decisions without meaningful human control.
Space Militarization: The increasing reliance on space-based assets for communication, navigation, and intelligence makes satellites vulnerable targets. The development of anti-satellite (ASAT) weapons and the potential for conflict extending into space could have devastating consequences for global communication and information systems.
These technologies collectively create a more complex, faster-paced, and potentially more volatile security environment, significantly increasing the risks of miscalculation and unintended escalation.
Geoeconomic Warfare and Systemic Shocks
The global economy is increasingly serving as a battleground for geopolitical competition. States are more frequently employing economic tools – including tariffs, sanctions, export controls on critical technologies and resources (like semiconductors or rare earth minerals), and investment restrictions – as instruments of coercion. Efforts to re-shore or "friend-shore" supply chains, while aimed at reducing vulnerabilities, also contribute to the fragmentation of the global economy.
This trend creates new systemic weaknesses. Major disruptions to critical global supply chains – whether caused by deliberate state action, conflict spillover, climate shocks, or future pandemics – could trigger cascading economic crises with significant security implications. Energy markets remain vulnerable to geopolitical shocks, and global food security is precarious, threatened by conflict, climate change impacts, and supply chain disruptions. The weaponization of economic interdependence means that economic shocks are now more likely to have geopolitical origins and consequences, potentially translating economic hardship into social unrest or even interstate conflict if vital sectors are severely impacted.
IX. Strategic Implications for a Decade
Most Dangerous Flashpoints and Trends
The period from 2025 to 2035 is likely to be characterized by heightened global conflict risk, driven by a complex interplay of factors. Based on the analysis, the most dangerous potential flashpoints and ongoing conflicts include:
Africa: The devastating civil war in Sudan, the expanding jihadist insurgency in the Sahel pushing into coastal West Africa, and Ethiopia's internal fragility.
Americas: Haiti's state collapse and pervasive gang warfare, and Mexico's intense cartel violence (with the potential to be worsened by US policy decisions).
Asia: The ongoing civil wars in Myanmar and Yemen, instability radiating from Afghanistan and Pakistan, the Israel-Palestine conflict and its high potential for regional escalation (involving Lebanon/Hezbollah and Iran), instability in post-Assad Syria, and the major power flashpoints over Taiwan, in the South China Sea, and on the Korean Peninsula.
Europe: The continuing Russia-Ukraine war and, crucially, the significantly increased perceived risk of a direct conflict between Russia and NATO.
Underpinning these specific regional risks are powerful global trends: the intensifying competition between major powers (US-China, Russia-West); the accelerating impacts of climate change acting as a conflict multiplier; the destabilizing potential of new technologies (AI, cyber); the increasing weaponization of economic interdependence; and a noticeable erosion of global cooperation and the effectiveness of multilateral institutions.
A key characteristic of the current environment is the interconnectedness of these risks. Conflicts are less likely to remain neatly localized. There is a greater potential for spillover effects, cascading crises across different domains (security, economy, environment), and the emergence of multiple simultaneous emergencies that could overwhelm global response capacities. The overall expert outlook for the next decade leans increasingly pessimistic, anticipating greater instability, fragmentation, and turbulence worldwide.
Implications for Global Security, Economy, and Humanitarian Needs
This challenging outlook carries profound implications across multiple domains:
Increased Military Demands: A higher potential for conflict likely translates into greater demands on military resources, potentially overstretching major powers involved in multiple theaters simultaneously. Defense spending globally is likely to continue its upward trend.
Economic Disruption: Ongoing and potential new conflicts pose significant threats to global trade routes, energy supplies, food security, and critical supply chains. This is likely to result in increased economic volatility, inflationary pressures, and potentially slower global growth.
Escalating Humanitarian Crises: Existing conflict-driven humanitarian emergencies (in places like Sudan, Gaza, Yemen, Myanmar) are likely to worsen. Furthermore, new crises involving mass displacement, famine risk, and widespread human suffering are probable in the coming decade.
Strain on International Order: The combination of intensifying great power rivalry, a growing disregard for international norms in the conduct of conflict, and the weakening of multilateral institutions will place significant strain on international law and the broader rules-based international order.
Heightened Catastrophic Risk: The potential for large-scale conventional wars between major powers, coupled with the increased perceived risk of nuclear weapon use and the possibility of cascading systemic failures (economic, environmental, technological), raises the specter of truly catastrophic outcomes more prominently than in recent decades.
